Right of Center

This column will primarily discuss the internal policy of, and issues dealing with, conservatism in general, and the Republican party in particular. Please send questions and comments to me at jcorbin@indiana.edu.

Whose party is fragmented?

The Democratic party is largely dependent upon a variety of one-issue voting groups. These groups will only vote for democrats as long as the principal candidates support that group's cause. Examples of one-issue voting groups include environmentalists, those in favor of abortion, the homosexual community, and various advocacy groups like the NAACP and Rainbow Coalition. If the loose alliance were to fracture at all, the Democratic party would be in trouble. Comparatively smaller is the portion of democratic voters who are staunchly democratic, not quick to change their support with the shifting of the political winds. Keeping all of these groups happy is a difficult task, and the Democrats often have trouble.

The Republican party is in the opposite (and more desirable) position. The GOP's main support comes from the staunch supporters, rather than the various one-issue voting groups. A shift in the winds means less to the GOP, because the main block of support won't be blown away. A good example is the phenomenon of "Reagan Democrats" who shifted their support to the GOP, as they saw Carter's policies prove ineffective. Despite a recession in the early 1980s, these voters (the staunch and slow-to-change) kept Reagan in office as his economic plan began to turn the country around.

An even better example is the second "Republican Revolution" in 1994. After the GOP majority had been swept into office, the infamous school-lunch and Medicare debates, as well as the government shutdown pushed many of the one-issue voters (and the media) back to the Democrats. But the staunch support stayed there, and even though it looked bad for the GOP for a while, the Republicans maintained their majority through two more elections. Therefore, it is easy to see that the party with the base with overlapping interests will succeed, while the loose associations will most often fail.

So what does this mean for the future of the Republican party? First, the party must continue efforts to consolidate and coordinate its staunch supporters. This is probably the only reason the majority has held together, because the media is allied with the White House against it. The threat of fragmentation is real, yet preventable. Party unity may be difficult to achieve on all issues, but the GOP cannot afford to look disorganized and weak as the 1998 and 2000 elections approach. Second, Republicans must take steps to retain the one issue voters by turning them into staunch supporters. One of the main reasons Bob Dole lost in 1996 is because too many Republicans didn't see him as their personal favorite among the GOP candidates. This sort of attitude will continue to put Democrats in the White House, and could totally erode the Congressional majority. Only by changing this sort of attitude will the GOP be able to achieve any large victories. The next "Right of Center" will discuss this problem, and offer some solutions for it.